FiveThirtyEight’s NFL Predictions Prior to Week 17

As Week 17 approaches, FiveThirtyEight’s NFL forecasts have become increasingly certain.

Joe Camporeale, Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are sitting at the top of the NFC at 12-3 heading into Week 17 with an 89% chance of earning a first-round bye and an ability to clinch the NFC by winning their next 2 games against Minnesota and Detroit. FiveThirtyEight currently predicts that they have a 24% chance to win the Super Bowl.

Charlie Riedel / Associated Press

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs lead the AFC 11-4 with a 73% chance of winning a first-round bye with 2 wins or a win and a Titans loss. FiveThirtyEight predicts that they have a 27% chance of winning the Super Bowl.

The teams capable of making the playoffs are:

*(not currently in a position to make the playoffs)

NFC: AFC:

Packers (Clinched) Chiefs (Clinched)

Buccaneers (Clinched) Titans

Rams (Clinched) Colts

Cowboys (Clinched) Bills

Cardinals (Clinched) Patriots

49ers Bengals

Eagles Dolphins

Saints* Chargers*

Vikings* Raiders*

Falcons* Ravens*

Washington* Steelers*

Browns*

Broncos*